Here is my latest At-Risk races… and there are DOOM calls. Hey, it’s Labor Day Weekend. Time to start in on that.
|Alaska||Mark Begich||High Risk|
|Arkansas||Mark Pryor||High Risk|
|Colorado||Mark Udall||Serious Risk|
|Louisiana||Mary Landrieu||High Risk|
|Minnesota||Al Franken||Low Risk|
|New Hampshire||Jeanne Shaheen||Some Risk|
|New Mexico||Tom Udall||Off list|
|North Carolina||Kay Hagan||High Risk|
|Oregon||Jeff Merkley||Low Risk|
|Virginia||Mark Warner||Low Risk|
- Alaska: Mark Begich has one of the Dan Sullivan Collective running against him, and Begich barely won last time, and Barack Obama hates oil development. High Risk – and yes, I know about the current polling. Incumbents at 46% with Begich’s disadvantages should be grateful for a lack of DOOM.
- Arkansas: Mark Pryor is behind in the aggregate polling and he’s stuck with a Democratic identity is a state that is trending less Democratic every year. High Risk.
- Colorado: Mark Udall is far too close to Cory Gardner in the polls for Democrats to be comfortable here, and all of the polls are over a month old. Serious Risk, but wait a month: this is the most volatile ranking on this list.
- Iowa: …Wow, Bruce Braley is a very bad candidate, huh? The way that he has pretty much thrown away what should have been a gimme lead makes this race High Risk, shading on DOOM.
- Louisiana: Mary Landrieu’s major hope is that she gets above 50% in the first wave, because if there’s a runoff she’s toast. Louisiana has also been trending Republican ever since Hurricane Katrina and Democrats hate oil production. High Risk.
- Michigan: I originally had this at ‘Serious Risk,’ but the polling is reasonably current and favors Gary Peters. But he’s below 50% and the election season is now starting in earnest. Some Risk.
- Minnesota: Al Franken keeps polling above 50%, dagnabbit. The only reason why I’m not taking this race off of the list is because he won by such a horrible margin last time and the race can in fact still implode. Low Risk.
- Montana. The existing candidate had to withdraw after a plagiarism scandal – and the Democrats then picked a Wobbly. That is not a euphemism. DOOM.
- New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen doesn’t have an official opponent, and there’s a single, most recent poll out that shows Scott Brown within striking distance, so let’s not collapse the state vector on this one quite yet. Some Risk.
- New Mexico: I have to take Tom Udall …read more