If you look at the Democratic Party’s campaign e-mails (including those of the DSCC and DCCC) , you’ll see that they are becoming increasingly desperate to stave off a Republican wave this November. Part of that desperation includes finding the most optimistic possible polls for their side in close races. In particular, they’ve singled out the Kentucky Senate race for attention, both because it is a close race and because the incumbent is Republican leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Mitch McConnellSenate Republican AverageSee Full Scorecard68%. The DSCC has pulled out their thesauruses and sent out e-mails with headlines like “McConnell OUSTED” and “McConnell ELIMINATED” while telling us they have polls showing Allison Grimes leading McConnell. The key thing is that, as in all their e-mails, the Democrats seldom, if ever, actually provide links to these polls, so that we can see the real numbers involved.
A typical DSCC e-mail on the Kentucky Senate race. Note how desperate they are for donations (Click to embiggen).
But in cases like this, you always have to watch what the other hand is doing. That’s where the real story is, and what the DSCC is really doing in the Kentucky Senate race tells us a lot more about their prospects than any e-mails they send out. Roll Call reports that they have “gone dark in Kentucky“. Per the article:
After a significant investment in support of Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, the DSCC had not reserved time for the final three weeks of the race and, as of today, is no longer on the air.
“The DSCC has now spent more than 2 million in Kentucky and continues to make targeted investments in the ground game while monitoring the race for future investments, but is currently not on the air in the state,” a DSCC official told CQ Roll Call.
Almost all of the recent public polls have found McConnell ahead by a small margin. It’s a situation with which he is very familiar, if his electoral history is any judge, and that’s the real state of the race.
Grimes has also been very critical of Obama, and the DSCC is certainly aware of this. It’s entirely possible that this fact has influenced their decision to spend their money elsewhere. Whatever the White House might say to the contrary, being openly critical of …read more