So why isn’t the NRSC doing more in, say, New Hampshire’s Senate race? Or, indeed, anything?

I’m not exactly sure what the reasoning is, here.

  • It’s not because the race isn’t competitive. It is – or, more accurately, it could be. Jeanne Sheehan is ahead of Scott Brown by 6.5 points in the current RCP average, sure. But she’s also under 50% in the aggregate polling, which is the usual rule of thumb for an incumbent in trouble. This is the sort of situation where throwing some advertisting cash into the mix could really come in handy.
  • Of course, it’s a little late for that now – back in May the Democrats blocked out about $1 million in ad buys for New Hampshire. I have been told that Senate Majority PAC has likewise put in $1.2 million. The NRSC… has decided not to spend any money for the last month.
  • The problem here may simply be that there’s bad blood. Now, this may be over something like Brown’s early (perhaps premature, in some people’s eyes) hard line on illegal immigration issues; or it may simply be that Scott Brown had some moderately harsh words to say about the NRSC’s operation back in 2011, and nobody ever forgets a slight in This Town*.
  • Either way, there doesn’t seem to be any last-minute money coming down the pipe. Which is… odd.

OK, let’s do cards-on-the-table. On November 5th, the NRSC is going to go out and give itself a giant big pat on the back because, hey, they won the Senate! And they’re going to be exceedingly smug about it, because they’ll have in the process re-elected Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Mitch McConnell68%Senate Republican AverageSee Full Scorecard68%, and Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Thad Cochran53%Senate Republican AverageSee Full Scorecard53%, and – in my personal opinion, which I have not been shy about expressing – Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Pat Roberts93%Senate Republican AverageSee Full Scorecard93%. And that’s fine; or, rather, that’s what will happen, so you might as well be prepared for it.

However. There is winning well, and then there is winning poorly. Every cent that the the NRSC spent on those candidates in the primaries is a cent that did not go to general races in New Hampshire, …read more    

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *