The public has tired of Barack Obama. More and more polling is beginning to reflect that and, given the latest Associated Press and Reuters polling, I wonder if some pollsters showing very close races are actually overcompensating because of 2012.
That point is worth considering first. Having talked to a number of pollsters, both Democrat and Republican, there are a few good, credible pollsters who called 2012 right who wonder if some pollsters are overcompensating. In 2012, a number of polling companies, including Gallup and Rasmussen, got the results very wrong. They overestimated Romney’s strength and underestimated a host of demographics turning out for President Obama.
Several pollsters I have talked to, who do not see the closeness some pollsters are seeing and who called 2012 right, think other pollsters may be over-correcting to try to avoid their own 2012. In the process, these pollsters may be getting 2014 wrong. It does seem, at the state by state level, there are a few races that look a lot closer than they should be — particularly now that we know Democrats have missed their voter registration targets significantly in a number of states.
That leads us back to the President.
Two of the polls that got 2012 right were the Associated Press/GfK poll and the Reuters/Ipsos poll. According to Reuters, the President is at 61% disapproval among likely voters. In the Associated Press poll, 60% of likely voters disapprove of the President. Further, the AP poll has the GOP ahead by eight percentage points in the generic ballot. For perspective, the AP had the GOP ahead by +7 in 2010. Even female voters are moving toward the GOP.
Most interestingly, while the GOP is not well liked by voters, the party leads the Democrats on most every issue. Whether national security or the economy, voters want the GOP over the Democrats.
These are startlingly terrible numbers for the President just as early voting kicks off pretty much everywhere. With the President’s numbers so bad and the GOP’s numbers so good, it makes you wonder what is going on in the state level polling that shows so many races so close. That national polling trickles down to states.
Perhaps there is some over-compensation and over-correction that is, ironically, going to cause a lot of pollsters to repeat the mistakes of 2012. There …read more