Monthly Archives: November 2014

On the CDC’s Latest Abortion Report

[H/T The Daily Caller]

The news this past Friday mostly centered on covering Black Friday and issues relating to the events in Ferguson, but amid all of these stories, the CDC has released its latest abortion surveillance report. This year’s report looks at the numbers for 2011, since those are the most recent ones available. There is a little good news in this report, but for the most part, the picture is still depressing. Let’s look at some of the most important numbers.

The report looks at 52 different reporting areas, which are the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. For this report, they received data from 49 of those areas. For trend analysis of the decade between 2002 and 2011, the 46 areas that had returned data all ten years were analyzed. The areas excluded from this 46 are Alaska, California, Louisiana, Maryland, New Hampshire, and West Virginia.

A grand total of 730,322 abortions were reported to the CDC in 2011, with 98.3% coming from the 46 areas that returned reports every year since 2002. The good news here is that the absolute number of abortions is down from previous years. In 2010, there were 753,065, and in 2002, there were 854, 122. The number of abortions in 2011 was the lowest in all 10 years surveyed.

While the total number is down from 2010 and 2002, there are still plenty of disturbing statistics in this report. In 2011, despite the downward trend, there were still 219 abortions per 1000 live births, which translates to just shy of 18%. Think about that: this means that almost 1/5 of all pregnancies ends in an abortion.

The report also presents a great argument for the traditional family structure. In the 37 areas that returned data for marital status in 2011, 85.5% of all abortions were from unmarried women. In other words, women who were legally married accounted for less than 15% of all abortions that year. As the Daily Caller (see the H/T) notes, “The proportion of unmarried women who have an abortion has actually increased, while abortion has fallen overall — in 2001, 81.7 percent of women who had an abortion were unmarried.”

A lot of digital ink has been devoted to explaining just how disproportionally bad abortion’s affect on the black community. This report does nothing to controvert that argument. While non-Hispanic white women were the source of a …read more    

The Democrats’ surprisingly complicated 2016 Senate problem.

Interesting list of potential Democratic retirements from the Hill, here:

  • Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Barbara Boxer0%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard0%, 74
  • Joe Manchin, 67
  • Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Patrick Leahy4%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard4%, 74
  • Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Barbara Mikulski0%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard0%, 78
  • Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Harry Reid11%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard11%, 74

Manchin’s on the list because he’s doing all the things that Senators who are planning to run for Governor do: to wit, talking about how much he hates Washington DC, and letting the state party apparatus dip their beaks into his fundraising war chest. Boxer is… tired, I think. Also, not raising money. Of the other three: Leahy is actually younger than I thought he was; he’s probably staying. Reid has two years of pain ahead of him. Mikulski… Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Barbara Mikulski0%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard0% would be 80 in 2016. That’s old for a reelection campaign.

This is all relevant because – assuming a 54-46 GOP/Dem Senate – retirements are going to be exceedingly important in 2016. The current ratio of Republican seats being defended to Democratic ones – 24 to 10 – would be potentially bad enough; complicating it is that of the five other Democratic Senators running, only Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Michael Bennet2%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard2%t of Colorado is considered to be seriously at risk. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Patty Murray0%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard0% of Washington State is a possible sleeper, because hope springs eternal.

On the other hand, looking at the other side things aren’t quite as bad for the GOP as all those breathless articles were insisting before the election. Assuming nobody retires from the Senate to run for Governor or President …read more    

Why Southern Democrats can’t win

I’m not in the business of giving electoral advice to Democrats. Unlike Chuck Schumer, who went out of his way to tell us what we had to do on immigration or face a blow-out in 2014, I enjoy blow-out elections like 2010 and 2014. I am in favor of at least a two-party system because having lived in one-party paradises in DC and Maryland I can tell you nothing corrupts so absolutely as one party being in perpetual control of government. The modern Democrats are, however, not an acceptable alternative. Nothing would make me happier that the Democrat party simply going away because the Democrats and what passes for “values” in the Democrat party run contrary to logic, economics, and Western Civilization.

But some times a bit of delusional nonsense floats by that demands commentary. For instance, via Huffington Post, Southern Democrats Urge a Return to Party Basics:

Southern Democrats are joining others in the party who say that a return to advocating to lift people out of economic hardship and emphasizing spending on education and public works will re-energize black voters and attract whites as well.

“It’s time to draw a line in the sand and not surrender our brand,” Rickey Cole, the party chairman in Mississippi, said. He believes candidates have distanced themselves from the past half-century of Democratic principles.

“We don’t need a New Coke formula,” Cole said. “The problem is we’ve been out there trying to peddle Tab and RC Cola.”

Cole and other Southern Democrats acknowledge divisions with prominent populists such as Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is expected to run for president in 2016, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Elizabeth Warren6%Senate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard6%. Yet they see merit in pushing stronger voting rights laws, tighter bank regulation, labor-friendly policies such as a higher minimum wage and other familiar party themes.

To put it politely, the Democrat party is a non-entity in Mississippi and, to paraphrase George Patton, Cole knows as much about winning as he does about f***ing.

As I see it the Democrat party has four problems that make Cole’s vision problematic.

All elections are national.

It is simply not possible for parties to tailor their message to specific states. If the candidate has held a national office (like, for instance, Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. …read more