Courtesy of the indispensable AOSHQDD comes the first early voting numbers for Louisiana’s Senate runoff numbers, and if the trends hold they’re gruesome for Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Mary LandrieuSenate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard4%. The summary: about 136,000 people did early/absentee voting as of 11/25/2014. 72% of those voters were white, 25% black, the rest ‘other.’ If the numbers found here are accurate, Landrieu got 94% of the black vote in the primary… and 18% of the white vote. Some back of the envelope calculations later… if the same electorate that voted in the general election also votes in the runoff, Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)Heritage ActionScorecardRep. Bill CassidyHouse Republican AverageSee Full Scorecard59% is ahead of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Mary LandrieuSenate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard4%, 62-38 (if you spot all of the Other votes to Landrieu the win goes ‘down’ to 61/39).
Those are a lot of assumptions, mind you. The racial breakdown of the vote is largely based on the CNN exit polls; and, of course, local Democrats are going to go do their level best to increase black turnout. But even if the Democrats manage to get a runoff electorate that’s 30% black Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)Heritage ActionScorecardSen. Mary LandrieuSenate Democrat AverageSee Full Scorecard4% still loses. Badly (59/41)*. This is so much of a looming disaster for the Landrieu campaign that I’m actively slightly suspicious of it. No way is she losing this badly, right?
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PS: Seriously, though, DOOM.
*I didn’t even bother to factor in the ‘Other’ votes, that time. The only difference would be in in how far the rubble bounced.
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